Analysis: What Alex Bregman’s opt-out decision means for Red Sox

When Alex Bregman couldn t land a lucrative long-term contract this past winter he pivoted late in the offseason and agreed to a short-term high-dollar deal to join the Red Sox But that three-year million deal which included opt-outs after each season was unfailingly designed to give Bregman another crack at free agency Related Articles Three Red Sox players publicized as Gold Glove finalists Record Red Sox B Alex Bregman to opt out test free agency Statement Red Sox lose another front office executive to Washington Nationals Red Sox Account Card Trevor Story bounces back to earn high marks Red Sox point-counterpoint What should club s top priority be this winter According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post Bregman plans to exercise his opt-out and hit the open arena Once the move is official Bregman will become one of the highest-profile free agents available and whether or not he returns will be perhaps the biggest story of the offseason for the Red Sox What does this mean for Boston Here s everything you need to know Why is Bregman opting out Bregman s decision to opt out is rooted in business While the veteran was in line to earn million over the next two seasons he should be able to easily beat that in free agency Plus this year represents Bregman s best chance to earn a long-term deal Bregman will start next season at age and while he missed time due to injury and saw his production dip down the stretch he is still coming off an All-Star season and has shown he can produce at a high level Had he played out his deal he would ve hit free agency going into his age season by which point he risked showing signs of decline that may have limited him to one- or two-year deals in the future What kind of deal will Bregman seek Bregman will try to land the biggest deal he can but it stands to reason he ll want at least four years As the top third baseman on the free agent realm it s conceivable he could get five or even six years Last year Bregman s other options besides Boston reportedly included a six-year million offer from his incumbent Houston Astros and he later turned down a announced six-year million offer from the Detroit Tigers One factor limiting his field then was the fact that he d been extended a qualifying offer which meant any organization that signed him would forfeit their second-highest draft pick Under the current collective bargaining agreement players can t be extended a qualifying offer more than once so Bregman won t have that hanging over his head this winter What will Sox do if Bregman leaves Bregman was one of Boston s best players and if he signs with another club he ll leave a void that won t be filled easily In terms of free agent options Bregman is the best third baseman available The only other free agent third baseman who d come close to filling his shoes is Eugenio Suarez who hit home runs for the Diamondbacks and Mariners this season but who is two years older at age and worse defensively The Red Sox could also explore the commerce sector but anyone who d move the needle would likely command a package that might be better spent on bringing in a front-end starting pitcher Internally Boston s best bet would be starting Marcelo Mayer at third base as he did for portions of this past season while Bregman was sidelined with his quad strain Mayer is excellent defensively and would be up to the task but he has also been injury-prone throughout his professional career so the Red Sox would likely need selected kind of backup plan too Will Sox pay up Given the strides the Red Sox made this past season it stands to reason keeping Bregman will be a top priority For much of the past five years the Red Sox to the frustration of fans everywhere largely held back on spending While club leaders spoke of their desire to compete their actions declared otherwise and it s clear now the organization was committed to a long-term rebuild and wouldn t seriously invest until it felt it could realistically compete That time has arrived The Red Sox are now squarely in a competitive window and have shifted their strategy accordingly In addition to signing Bregman last February the Red Sox also locked up Garrett Crochet Roman Anthony Aroldis Chapman and former top prospect Kristian Campbell to extensions this past season and ran up a franchise-record payroll of approximately million The club also freed up substantial information by trading Rafael Devers this past summer and should have millions more coming off the books when Lucas Giolito and Liam Hendriks who each have mutual options likely join Bregman as free agents Money shouldn t be a complication With the club potentially poised to compete for a World Series as soon as next year losing Bregman would be a important and unnecessary setback Though signing Bregman to a long-term deal does come with threat he is exactly the kind of championship participant the Red Sox need as they look to take the next step But while a reunion makes sense for both sides nothing is guaranteed so fans will want to keep a close eye on Bregman s industry as it develops in the coming weeks and months